Should we trust Indonesia to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict? A limited opinion

President Joko Widodo of Indonesia (photo: MSN)

A recent headline from DetikNews (25/2) underlined Indonesia’s capability to end the nowaday’s conflict that occurred in eastern Ukraine. Beforemath, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a special military deployment to the geopolitical territory just after his recognition of self-proclaimed independent Donetsk and Luhansk, Reuters reported (21/2).

Indonesia will hold this year’s G20 presidency. Meaning that she will be holding the leadership role to ensure the continuity of the agenda of G20. Through this forum, a historical Indonesia’s foreign politics of neutrality is hoped to end the decisive action from President Putin. Unsurprisingly, this triggered many Indonesian youngsters in social media to make their comments. Some agreed, and the others were sceptically “agree.” Does President Joko Widodo's regime have everything it takes to make it come to reality?

The G20 forum, over years, has focused more on its economic agendas rather than military-based security programs. This simplified logic says the economy must be a medium to solve the conflict. For neorealists, it is not impossible but it may be not enough. Sanctioned has been imposed at the country, enterprise, and the individual level.

Take the Crimean crisis as an instance. In G20 Summit 2014 in Brisbane, Australia, the Western Allies put serious pressure on Kremlin that he had to fully retreat from the territory (BBC, 2014). However, Kremlin integrated Crimea into Russia’s sovereignty thoroughly to its every acre was being the undisturbed conclusion of the story.

Indonesia’s experience as an impermanent member of the UN Security Council in 2019-2020 is judged to be helpful making her a prominent leader to solidify power from all G20 members. A diplomatic window is wide open for “G20-backed” Indonesia to invite President Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to talk together at the same table.

However, Indonesia has to face two contradictory realities when approaching the two countries. Approaching Ukraine will be far less difficult because quickening Ukraine’s plan to join NATO is a significant bargaining power for Indonesia to harness. Ukraine has not had many options during the national military emergency. Meanwhile, Indonesia must create an independent political frame out of Russia’s more abstract reality.

A presumption grasped Russia’s activity in eastern Ukraine as part of President Putin’s agenda rather than the nation’s foreign policy. The CNBC broadcasted (23/2), Jeffrey Edmonds, a former Director for Russia of the U.S. National Security Council stated that President Putin desires to create regime changes in Ukraine.

Edmonds noted, “given the size of the force, the rhetoric we have heard about Ukraine and its statehood, I think you are going to see him (President Putin) go all the way (to Kyiv, Ukraine capital).” To be said, President Widodo needs to possess the ability to be one step ahead of President Putin’s ambition in a relatively shorter period.

In another scenario, it is alleged to be unfortunate for Indonesia if she implements common Western Allies' diplomatic practices when confronting Russia as it only shows her bias that will disturb the status-quo onto worse.

Should we trust Indonesia to end the conflict? Spectators decide.